Published: Sat, January 06, 2018
Medicine | By Melba Vasquez

GDP likely to grow by 6.5% this fiscal

GDP likely to grow by 6.5% this fiscal

Meanwhiele, the CSO also projected that the manufacturing sector will grow at 4.6 percent in 2017-18, compared to 7.9 percent in 2016-17.

The Growth in GDP during 2017-18 has been estimated at 6 point 5 per cent as compared to 7 point 1 per cent in 2016-17. Once the impact of transient factors wanes, inflation will settle around RBI's target of 4 per cent, a news agency reported citing the HSBC research note. The Reserve Bank of India expects the economy to grow by 6.7% in 2017-18.

The national income projections on Friday will be the first full-year data giving out GDP estimates based on new GST tax estimates.

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Analysts will also keenly examine the data used for calculating the advance GDP estimates.

As far economic trend is concerned, a rebound in household spending and corporate investments hold out hopes of rapid recovery from the twin disruptions of implementation of both demonetisation and GST.

The advance estimate for Gross Value Added (GVA), the more closely watched indicator for growth, is 6.1 per cent for 2017-18, down from 6.6 per cent in the previous financial year. The growth rate for "Agriculture, forestry and fishing" and "Mining and quarrying" are expected to be 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively in FY2017-18. "GDP growth of 6.5% for 2017-18 implies growth of 7% for the second half".

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Among the sectors that are likely to register higher growth this fiscal are construction at 3.6% against 1.7% past year and trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting at 8.7% versus 7.8%.

"The advance estimates for the full year have been based on limited data, which would be available for a period of 6-9 months for different sectors".

According to the GDP estimate for 2017-18 released by the CSO, the GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 is likely to attain a level of Rs 129.85 lakh crore. I think the GVA estimate is conservative. With GST kicking in from July 1, and tax return filing still not smoothening out, official statisticians may have to rely on approximations to measure changes in India's GDP in the absence of past tax collection data on a comparable scale. In Union Budget 2017, the finance ministry had assumed nominal GDP of Rs168.5 trillion at 11.75% growth rate.

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For compiling taxes on products at constant prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes.

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