Published: Mon, January 08, 2018
Economy | By Shawn Conner

Economy set for slowdown as govt pegs growth for FY18 at 6.5%

Economy set for slowdown as govt pegs growth for FY18 at 6.5%

GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 7 per cent in the second half of the current financial year from 6 per cent in the first half. Notably, the expected growth rate is lesser than last two year's GDP of 7.1 percent and 8 percent respectively.

The practice of releasing advance GDP growth data began a year ago when the government shifted the Union Budget presentation to February 1 from the end of February.

The government estimated that gross value added (GVA), which is GDP minus net taxes, will grow at 6.1 percent in 2017-18.

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However, there is a difference between the way manufacturing data is calculated in the GDP and the IIP. Manufacturing is doing no better; its growth is expected to head southward to 4.6 per cent from 7.9 per cent.

The Indian economy is expected to decelerate to 6.5% in 2017-18 from 7.1% in the previous year, marred by the twin policy blow of demonetisation and hasty implementation of the goods and services tax (GST).

A barometer of investment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs 43.84 lakh crore in 2017-18 as against Rs 41.18 lakh crore in 2016-17. In 2016-17, India's GDP grew by 7.1%. In the first seven months of the financial year, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth averaged 2.5%, a tad lower than the average of 2.6% in the first six months (April-September). Most of the economist echo the view that the economy will grow at lower levels in the range of 6.5 to 6.7 percent.

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The data disclosed that sectors like public administration, defence and other services, trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services and financial, real estate and professional services registered a growth rate of over 7 per cent. The GST Council had cut rates for over 200 items in October and November, which might impact collections. "Assuming that budgetary targets will be met, which gave a fiscal deficit of 3.24 per cent, our figures estimate it to be at 3.29 per cent, which rounding off becomes 3.3 per cent", he said.

Factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five years in December, a private sector survey showed on Tuesday, buoyed by a rise in output and new orders.

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